Carvana (CVNA) Weekly Stock Analysis



Introduction: In the past few weeks, Carvana's stock (CVNA) has been experiencing a bearish trend, transitioning from the bullish zone to the bearish zone three weeks ago. The overall market sentiment suggests a strong inclination towards selling, indicating a significant downward trend.

Current Trend: As of the last week of October, the stock appears to be entering a period of minor recovery after the prolonged downward trend. Short-term indicators suggest a potential brief uptrend until mid-November. However, it is crucial to note the stock's high correlation of 76% with the overall US market, indicating that the duration of this upward trend might be influenced by the broader market conditions.

Short-Term Outlook: Anticipated to last until mid-November, this short-lived uptrend may see some fluctuations based on the market's movements. It is essential for investors to be vigilant, as the stock might experience a temporary recovery, followed by a resumption of the bearish trend.

Long-Term Projection: Following this temporary recovery, a resumption of the bearish trend is expected. During this downward phase, the stock price could potentially drop significantly, possibly around $20 or more. Given the stock's current position in the bearish zone, the overall market sentiment favors selling, with weak buying pressure. This suggests that any upward movement is likely to be short-lived, and the stock may resume its decline.

Conclusion: In summary, Carvana's stock (CVNA) is currently in a bearish zone with a strong selling sentiment. The anticipated short-term uptrend until mid-November might offer brief opportunities for investors, but caution is advised. Considering the high correlation with the US market, external factors can significantly impact the stock's performance. Investors should closely monitor the market and be prepared for potential further declines in the stock price.

Disclaimer: This analysis is based on historical data and market trends, and it is essential to conduct further research and analysis before making any investment decisions.


Oct 23, 2023

◆ Closed price

28.58

-8.01%

　

　

◆ Appropriate Investment Position: Bearish-Sell [Long-term strategy]

◆ This week's stock price Buy-Sell intensity analysis

The current trend appears to be 'Entering a rebound trend'. The OPEN-price started with a stronger decline rate than the current trend and The HIGH and LOW prices are showing an appropriate HIGH-price to the current trend and a weaker LOW-price Finally, the CLOSE-price closed with a weaker decline rate than the current trend.

The overall buy-sell intensity indicates that the sell intensity is stronger than the buy.

Assuming that the average sell intensity is -100%,

This week's sell intensity is

-51%

 

 

◆ Next week's stock price Buy-Sell intensity Prediction

Based on recent stock trends and technical analysis, it looks like CVNA stock is poised for a Rebound trend next week

The %intensity of Risk & Return next week :

35%

HIGH ~ LOW % range next week :

19.2%

0.3%

Predicted Average return over the next 3 weeks:

13.6%

The price of CVNA stock moves in line with the rise and fall of the stock market index with a probability of

76%

 

, and conversely, it moves against the stock market index trend with a probability of

24%

 

because of the high similarity, the predicted flow might change depending on the flow of the stock market index. If any changes are made, the stock flow of the 10-week forecast may also change.

◆ CVNA stock price 10 Week prediction [Short-term strategy]

It is expected that the overall trend movement over the next 10 weeks will follow a descending rectangle pattern, with a ratio of 4 : 6 for the downward to upward direction, indicating a higher proportion of the upward trend. However, in terms of the expected strength of the upward and downward movements, the upward strength is moderate, while the downward strength is higher. Currently, it's about to begin a rebound trend as a downtrend gradually gives way to a slowdown in falling and rising fluctuations. and It's maintaining a suitable Buy-Sell intensity for the current trend conditions.

Indicating that We are currently in a bearish zone. Therefore, it is recommended to implement a strategy to reduce risk and take a suitable investing position. A suitable investing position is 'Sell(Bearish)' for now. The appropriate selling timing is predicted to be this week or next week.

The selling date is

Oct 30

 

 

A good price to sell a stock:

$ 33.86

And the appropriate buying timing is predicted to be in 5 weeks.

The buying date is

Nov 20

to

Nov 27

A good price to buy a stock:

$ 21.72

(Prediction may shift due to changes in the Buy-Sell intensity)

◆ Volatility of Prediction

Due to maintaining a proper flow of Buy-Sell intensity that is suitable for the current trend, pretiming predictions may have low volatility.

◆ Prediction the turning point of the trend

The probability of a trend reversal occurring This week and approximately 3 weeks from now, 6 weeks from now, 9 weeks from now

44%

◆ Prediction of Upper~Lower price range over the next 10 weeks

Price:

19.15

~

33.14

% Change:

-33.0%

~

16.0%

Median price between the upper and lower prices

26.15

-8.5%

◆ Analysis of the trend zone & level% and average intensity of trends

For the last 30 weeks, the average trend zone & level%

Bullish

41%

The Current trend zone & level%

Bearish

-47%

The expected average trend zone & level% for the next 10 weeks

Bearish

-44%

If the trend moves upward from the current trend level%, it's expected to have an average upward strength of

28%

(Max 100%)

And if it moves downward, it is expected to have a downward strength of

-71%

(Min -100%)

◆ Prediction the intensity of the trend and the range of the HIGH ~ LOW

Trend

%Intensity

HIGH

LOW

In 1 week: Rebound trend

35%

19.2%

0.3%

In 2 weeks: Entering a downtrend

-32%

4.8%

-5.8%

In 3 weeks: Entering a downtrend

-100%

-1.7%

-17.5%

In 4 weeks: Downtrend

-64%

4.2%

-11.9%

In 5 weeks: Downtrend

-98%

-1.4%

-15.0%

In 6 weeks: Entering a rebound trend

3%

2.9%

-6.8%

In 7 weeks: Rebound trend

45%

26.7%

-0.2%

In 8 weeks: Entering a downtrend

-47%

3.2%

-6.7%

In 9 weeks: Entering a downtrend

-92%

-2.0%

-17.8%

In 10 weeks: Downtrend

-65%

2.9%

-11.7%

◆ Average closing price in case of rising:

 

9.5%

=> HIGH ~ LOW range:

22.1%

~

-11.5%

◆ Average closing price in case of falling:

 

-13.5%

=> HIGH ~ LOW range:

8.6%

~

-16.6%

The 10-week prediction and technical analysis of CVNA stock are conducted based on the analysis of buy-sell intensity by the pretiming analysis. This analysis provides detailed information on various aspects, including the best stocks to buy, stock price targets, and investment strategies. It also includes bearish and bullish stock trend analysis as well as stock technical analysis.


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