Weekly Analysis and Outlook Report: SOXS - Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X ETF.



Overview: The Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X ETF (SOXS) has displayed a consistent pattern of alternating between bullish and corrective trends over the past 10 weeks, resulting in a cumulative gain of 12.1%. After a recent period of correction lasting three weeks, the ETF appears poised to resume its upward trajectory, potentially experiencing strong gains over the next 1-2 weeks. While a corrective phase might occur in early to mid-November, a return to an upward trend is anticipated by the end of November.

Current Trend and Investment Strategy: The current trend suggests a bullish phase is underway, making it opportune for medium to long-term investments. The ETF is expected to target $17 in the next 10 weeks, indicating a potential 40% increase from the current price. However, this target is subject to change based on the evolving market conditions. Given that SOXS moves inversely to the broader market (correlation at 23%), it appears relatively insulated from the overall market direction.

Market Analysis and Future Projections: Considering the broader market conditions, there is a prevailing sense of uncertainty. The overall market outlook appears less favorable, with a higher likelihood of a negative trajectory. The period around mid-November seems to offer a potential window for market growth. The extent of this growth and the subsequent year-end market scenario will depend heavily on the market's performance during this critical period. As of now, the outlook remains pessimistic.

Conclusion: In summary, the current trend for SOXS suggests a positive outlook for the ETF itself, despite the overall negative sentiment in the market. The upcoming weeks, particularly around mid-November, will play a crucial role in determining the market's direction and, consequently, the ETF's performance. Further assessments and adjustments to the predictions can be made with greater certainty in November.

Note: This report provides a snapshot of the current market conditions and is subject to change based on future developments.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Investors should conduct their research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.


Oct 16, 2023

◆ Closed price

12.37

13.07%

　

　

◆ Appropriate Investment Position: Bullish-Buy [Long-term strategy]

◆ This week's stock price Buy-Sell intensity analysis

The current trend appears to be 'Uptrend'. The OPEN-price started with a stronger decline rate than the current trend and The HIGH and LOW prices are showing an appropriate HIGH-price to the current trend and a weaker LOW-price Finally, the CLOSE-price closed with a suitable upward rate for the current trend.

The overall buy-and-sell intensity indicates that the buy intensity is stronger than the sell.

Assuming that the average buy intensity is 100%,

This week's buy intensity is

102%

 

 

◆ Next week's stock price Buy-Sell intensity Prediction

Based on recent stock trends and technical analysis, it looks like SOXS stock is poised for an Uptrend next week

The %intensity of Risk & Return next week :

95%

HIGH ~ LOW % range next week :

12.3%

-1.4%

Predicted Average return over the next 3 weeks:

18.0%

The price of SOXS stock moves in line with the rise and fall of the stock market index with a probability of

23%

 

, and conversely, it moves against the stock market index trend with a probability of

77%

 

 

◆ SOXS stock price 10 Week prediction [Short-term strategy]

It is expected that the overall trend movement over the next 10 weeks will follow a strong upward direction, with a ratio of 4 : 6 for the downward to upward direction, indicating a higher proportion of the upward trend. And, in terms of the expected strength of the upward and downward movements, the upward strength is higher, while the downward strength is moderate. Currently, it's in the midst of a strong uptrend in prices, marked by brief declines and strong rises. and It's maintaining a suitable Buy-Sell intensity for the current trend conditions.

Indicating that We are currently in a bullish zone. Therefore, it is recommended to implement a strategy to increase profits and take a suitable investing position. A suitable investing position is 'Buy(Bullish) and Hold' for now. The appropriate buying timing is predicted to be this week or next week.

The buying date is

Oct 23

 

 

A good price to buy a stock:

$ 12.34

And the appropriate selling timing is predicted to be in 2 weeks.

The selling date is

Oct 23

to

Oct 30

A good price to sell a stock:

$ 15.02

(Prediction may shift due to changes in the Buy-Sell intensity)

◆ Volatility of Prediction

Due to maintaining a proper flow of Buy-Sell intensity that is suitable for the current trend, pretiming predictions may have low volatility.

◆ Prediction the turning point of the trend

The probability of a trend reversal occurring approximately 3 weeks from now, 7 weeks from now

59%

◆ Prediction of Upper~Lower price range over the next 10 weeks

Price:

11.38

~

17.33

% Change:

-8.0%

~

40.1%

Median price between the upper and lower prices

14.35

16.0%

◆ Analysis of the trend zone & level% and average intensity of trends

For the last 30 weeks, the average trend zone & level%

Bearish

-20%

The Current trend zone & level%

Bullish

21%

The expected average trend zone & level% for the next 10 weeks

Bullish

38%

If the trend moves upward from the current trend level%, it's expected to have an average upward strength of

78%

(Max 100%)

And if it moves downward, it is expected to have a downward strength of

-30%

(Min -100%)

◆ Prediction the intensity of the trend and the range of the HIGH ~ LOW

Trend

%Intensity

HIGH

LOW

In 1 week: Uptrend

95%

12.3%

-1.4%

In 2 weeks: Entering a correction trend

91%

10.6%

-0.4%

In 3 weeks: Entering a correction trend

-48%

1.3%

-13.7%

In 4 weeks: Correction trend

-30%

1.3%

-4.8%

In 5 weeks: Correction trend

-44%

0.1%

-10.6%

In 6 weeks: Entering an uptrend

10%

5.2%

-4.8%

In 7 weeks: Entering an uptrend

100%

13.8%

-0.1%

In 8 weeks: Uptrend

83%

9.6%

-3.0%

In 9 weeks: Uptrend

91%

14.2%

0.3%

In 10 weeks: Entering a correction trend

0%

8.0%

-2.4%

◆ Average closing price in case of rising:

 

11.8%

=> HIGH ~ LOW range:

16.1%

~

-7.5%

◆ Average closing price in case of falling:

 

-7.8%

=> HIGH ~ LOW range:

10.1%

~

-12.1%

The 10-week prediction and technical analysis of SOXS stock are conducted based on the analysis of buy-sell intensity by the pretiming analysis. This analysis provides detailed information on various aspects, including the best stocks to buy, stock price targets, and investment strategies. It also includes bearish and bullish stock trend analysis as well as stock technical analysis.

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