Analysis and Outlook for SOXL: Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF.



Analysis and Outlook for SOXL: Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF.

Introduction: The current daily trend for the Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF (SOXL) indicates a bullish phase, with upward momentum in progress. However, there are signs of weakening buying strength, leading to a temporary shift in sentiment toward selling pressure. This report explores the short-term fluctuations expected over the next 1-2 days, anticipating a mix of declines and rebounds. A key turning point is anticipated in the coming week, as the daily trend shows signs of resuming its upward trajectory.

Short-Term Analysis: In the short term, a brief period of volatility characterized by fluctuations is expected. This is attributed to a temporary decrease in buying intensity, resulting in heightened selling pressure. Investors should be prepared for a nuanced market with potential ups and downs over the next 1-2 days.

Long-Term Outlook: The overall daily trend is anticipated to re-enter a bullish phase, with a more pronounced upward momentum expected to resume in the early part of the following week. Based on the closing price today, a potential upward movement of approximately 13% is projected for the coming week.

Market Correlation: It is crucial to note the high correlation of around 79% between SOXL and the broader U.S. market. This implies a strong interdependence, and investors should closely monitor the overall market trends. Given this correlation, changes in the broader market could impact SOXL's anticipated movements and timing. Therefore, understanding and aligning with the broader market trends is deemed essential for making informed investment decisions.

Conclusion: In conclusion, while the short term may experience fluctuations, the overall outlook for SOXL suggests a resumption of the bullish trend in the next week. Investors are advised to consider the high correlation with the U.S. market and stay attuned to broader market trends for a more comprehensive understanding of potential shifts in SOXL's trajectory.


Dec 05, 2023

Closed price

21.93

-1.70%

 

 

Appropriate Investment Position: Bullish-Buy [Long-term strategy]

Today's stock price Buy-Sell intensity analysis

The current trend appears to be 'Entering a correction trend'. The OPEN-price started with a stronger decline rate than the current trend and The HIGH and LOW prices are showing a weaker HIGH-price and an appropriate LOW-price compared to the current trend. Finally, the CLOSE-price closed with a weaker decline rate than the current trend.

The overall buy-sell intensity indicates that the sell intensity is stronger than the buy.

Assuming that the average sell intensity is -100%,

Today's sell intensity is

-92%

 

 

Tomorrow's stock price Buy-Sell intensity Prediction

Based on recent stock trends and technical analysis, it looks like SOXL stock will enter an Correction trend tomorrow

The %intensity of Risk & Return tomorrow :

-33%

HIGH ~ LOW % range tomorrow :

0.3%

-1.4%

Predicted Average return over the next 3 days:

1.0%

The price of SOXL stock moves in line with the rise and fall of the stock market index with a probability of

79%

 

, and conversely, it moves against the stock market index trend with a probability of

21%

 

because of the high similarity, the predicted flow might change depending on the flow of the stock market index. If any changes are made, the stock flow of the 10-day forecast may also change.

SOXL stock price 10 Day prediction [Short-term strategy]

It is expected that the overall trend movement over the next 10 days will follow a strong upward direction, with a ratio of 1 : 9 for the downward to upward direction, indicating a higher proportion of the upward trend. And, in terms of the expected strength of the upward and downward movements, the upward strength is higher, while the downward strength is moderate. Currently, it's about to begin a correction trend as an upward trend gradually gives way to a slowdown in rises and falling fluctuations. and When the stock market opened, the Buy-Sell intensity had turned into a stronger selling flow.

Indicating that We are currently in a bullish zone so far. But It is likely to change to a bearish zone within a few days. A suitable investing position is 'Buy(Bullish) and Hold' for now. The appropriate buying timing is predicted to be in 2 days.

The buying date is

Dec 06

to

Dec 07

A good price to buy a stock:

$ 21.49

And the appropriate selling timing is predicted to be in 7 days.

 

The selling date is

Dec 13

to

Dec 14

A good price to sell a stock:

$ 25.00

(Prediction may shift due to changes in the Buy-Sell intensity)

Volatility of Prediction

Due to sudden changes in Buy-Sell intensity that can cause instability in trend linkage, pretiming predictions can be highly volatile.

Predicting the Turning Point of the Trend

The probability of a trend reversal occurring approximately 1 day from now, 3 days from now

 

Prediction of Upper~Lower price range over the next 10 days

Price:

21.63

~

24.83

% Change:

-1.4%

~

13.2%

Median price between the upper and lower prices

23.23

5.9%

Analysis of the trend zone & level% and average intensity of trends

For the last 30 days, the average trend zone & level%

Bullish

18%

The Current trend zone & level%

Bullish

14%

The expected average trend zone & level% for the next 10 days

Bullish

48%

If the trend moves upward from the current trend level%, it's expected to have an average upward strength of

85%

(Max 100%)

And if it moves downward, it is expected to have a downward strength of

-35%

(Min -100%)

Prediction the intensity of the trend and the range of the HIGH ~ LOW

Trend

%Intensity

HIGH

LOW

In 1 day: Entering a correction trend

-33%

0.3%

-1.4%

In 2 days: Correction trend

-31%

0.2%

-1.2%

In 3 days: Turning into an uptrend

80%

5.1%

0.8%

In 4 days: Uptrend

93%

4.8%

0.2%

In 5 days: Uptrend

92%

3.6%

0.1%

In 6 days: Uptrend

89%

3.7%

0.1%

In 7 days: Uptrend

72%

3.1%

0.1%

In 8 days: Entering a correction trend

-10%

2.6%

-1.5%

In 9 days: Entering a correction trend

-49%

-0.6%

-2.7%

In 10 days: Entering a correction trend

-50%

-0.6%

-3.2%

Average closing price in case of rising:

 

3.3%

=> HIGH ~ LOW range:

4.7%

~

-1.8%

Average closing price in case of falling:

 

-3.1%

=> HIGH ~ LOW range:

1.1%

~

-5.2%

The 10-day prediction and technical analysis of SOXL stock are conducted based on the analysis of buy-sell intensity by the pretiming analysis. This analysis provides detailed information on various aspects, including the best stocks to buy, stock price targets, and investment strategies. It also includes bearish and bullish stock trend analysis as well as stock technical analysis.


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