CVNA. Stock Analysis: Navigating Bearish Trends with 'Sell and Wait' Long-Term Strategy, Short-Term Sell Approach Amidst Rebound Indications

Jan 29, 2024
CVNA stock closing price
44.9	7.46%
◆ [Long-term strategy]
The current trend zone is Bearish. and Investment position suitable for the trend zone is Sell and Wait.
The trend within a Bearish zone is divided into a 'Downtrend' in the downward direction and a 'Rebound Trend' in the upward direction. In the Downtrend, there is a strong downward flow with occasional upward movements, while in the Rebound Trend, there is a fluctuating flow involving limited or temporary upward movements and downward fluctuations. Investing in this zone is associated with low expected returns and a higher risk of decline.
In a Bearish zone, there is potential for strong selling pressure to persist, resulting in a pronounced downward trend and a relatively weak upward rebound trend. When considering a medium to long-term investment strategy, if the trend moves in the Bearish zone, one can anticipate a downward flow of the bearish trend, allowing for the possibility of avoiding high downside risks or potentially gaining profits by investing in inverse stocks.
This is a method of waiting, observing the overall market conditions after selling in anticipation of a general price decline, and then making a buy decision again. And when the trend enters a Bullish zone, it becomes the Buying point.
As there are no anticipated changes in the trend zone that warrant considering a shift in investment strategy at this point, it is advisable to maintain the current investment position.
The 'Sell and Wait' position has been maintained for 4 days since the entry into the Bearish zone. During this period, the cumulative rate of
loss in the Bearish has been	-1.4%	as of the current date.
Selling price	Current price		Difference
45.5	44.9		-0.6
Jan 23, 2024	Jan 29, 2024		4 days
◆ [Short-term strategy]
Indicating that We are currently in a bearish zone. Therefore, it is recommended to implement a strategy to reduce risk and take a suitable investing position.
In a bearish zone, where selling intensity is potentially strong, considering the possibility of a significant downturn at appropriate selling points is crucial. Hence, in the short term, an active and aggressive selling response is effective. During buying moments, it is advisable to adopt a wait-and-see approach or a conservative response with low exposure for purchases. Responding promptly to sell during upward movements can be utilized as an opportunity for risk hedging.
Currently, it's about to begin a rebound trend as a downtrend gradually gives way to a slowdown in falling and rising fluctuations. and The Buy-Sell intensity had a stronger buying flow than a buying flow in a bearish zone.
Entering a rebound trend can be identified as the point when the previously strong selling pressure begins to gradually weaken, and the intense downward momentum starts to diminish.
It is expected that the overall trend movement over the next 10 days will follow a sideways box pattern, with a ratio of 4 : 6 for the downward to upward direction, indicating a higher proportion of the upward trend. However, in terms of the expected intensity of the upward and downward movements, the upward intensity is moderate, while the downward intensity is higher.
A suitable investing position is 'Sell(Bearish)' for now. The appropriate selling timing is predicted to be in 2 days.
The selling date is	Jan 30	to	Jan 31
A good price to sell a stock:		46.6
And the appropriate buying timing is predicted to be in 5 days.
The buying date is	Feb 02	to	Feb 05
A good price to buy a stock:		38.9
The price of CVNA stock moves in line with the rise and fall of
the stock market index with a probability of		71%	, and
Conversely, it moves against the stock market index trend
with a probability of	29%
Due to the high correlation level with the US stock market, there is a high probability of exhibiting movements in ascent and descent that closely resemble the trends in the US market.
because of the high similarity, the predicted flow might change depending on the flow of the stock market index. If any changes are made, the stock flow of the 10-day forecast may also change.
- Volatility of Prediction
Due to sudden changes in Buy-Sell intensity that can cause instability in trend linkage, pretiming predictions can be highly volatile.
- Predicting the Turning Point of the Trend
The probability of a trend reversal occurring Today and approximately 3 days from now, 7 days from now
- Prediction of Upper~Lower price range over the next 10 days
Price:	39.7	~	46.4
% Change:	-11.7%	~	3.3%
Median price between the upper and lower		43.0	-4.2%
- Analysis of the trend zone & level% and average intensity of trends
For the last 30 days, the average trend zone & level%		Bullish	16%
The Current trend zone & level%		Bearish	-60%
The expected average trend zone & level% for the next 10 days		Bearish	-35%
If the trend moves upward from the current trend level%, it's expected to have an average upward intensity of		37%	(Max 100%)
And if it moves downward, it is expected to have a downward intensity of		-94%	(Min -100%)
- Average closing price in case of rising:			3.4%
=> HIGH ~ LOW range:	6.4%	~	-2.6%
- Average closing price in case of falling:			-3.7%
=> HIGH ~ LOW range:	2.8%	~	-5.0%
The 10-day prediction and technical analysis of CVNA stock are conducted based on the analysis of buy-sell intensity by the pretiming analysis. This analysis provides detailed information on various aspects, including the best stocks to buy, stock price targets, and investment strategies. It also includes bearish and bullish stock trend analysis as well as stock technical analysis.