CVNA. Weekly analysis: Navigating Bearish Trends with Sell-and-Wait Strategy, Short-Term Opportunities in Uptrend Predicted.



Jan 29, 2024

CVNA stock closing price

43.5

3.95%

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Long-term strategy]

The current trend zone is Bearish. and Investment position suitable for the trend zone is Sell and Wait.

 

 

 

 

The trend within a Bearish zone is divided into a 'Downtrend' in the downward direction and a 'Rebound Trend' in the upward direction. In the Downtrend, there is a strong downward flow with occasional upward movements, while in the Rebound Trend, there is a fluctuating flow involving limited or temporary upward movements and downward fluctuations. Investing in this zone is associated with low expected returns and a higher risk of decline.

 

 

 

 

In a Bearish zone, there is potential for strong selling pressure to persist, resulting in a pronounced downward trend and a relatively weak upward rebound trend. When considering a medium to long-term investment strategy, if the trend moves in the Bearish zone, one can anticipate a downward flow of the bearish trend, allowing for the possibility of avoiding high downside risks or potentially gaining profits by investing in inverse stocks.

 

 

 

 

This is a method of waiting, observing the overall market conditions after selling in anticipation of a general price decline, and then making a buy decision again. And when the trend enters a Bullish zone, it becomes the Buying point.

 

 

 

 

The potential for the trend to enter the Bullish zone soon is high, prompting the need to consider a change in investment strategy at this juncture.

 

 

 

 

The 'Sell and Wait' position has been maintained for 1 week since the entry into the Bearish zone. During this period, the cumulative rate of

loss in the Bearish has been

3.9%

as of the current date.

 

 

 

 

Selling price

Current price

Difference

41.8

43.5

1.7

Jan 22, 2024

Jan 29, 2024

1 week

 

 

 

 

[Short-term strategy]

Indicating that We are currently in a bearish zone. Therefore, it is recommended to implement a strategy to reduce risk and take a suitable investing position.

 

 

 

 

In a bearish zone, where selling intensity is potentially strong, considering the possibility of a significant downturn at appropriate selling points is crucial. Hence, in the short term, an active and aggressive selling response is effective. During buying moments, it is advisable to adopt a wait-and-see approach or a conservative response with low exposure for purchases. Responding promptly to sell during upward movements can be utilized as an opportunity for risk hedging.

 

 

 

 

Currently, it's about to begin an uptrend as a correction trend gradually transitions to small declines and strong rises. and It's maintaining a suitable Buy-Sell intensity for the current trend conditions.

 

 

 

 

Entering an uptrend is when the subdued buying intensity gradually strengthens, leading to a robust upward momentum.

 

 

 

 

It is expected that the overall trend movement over the next 10 weeks will follow a strong upward direction, with a ratio of 4 : 6 for the downward to upward direction, indicating a higher proportion of the upward trend. And, in terms of the expected intensity of the upward and downward movements, the upward intensity is higher, while the downward intensity is moderate.

 

 

 

 

A suitable investing position is 'Buy(Bullish) and Hold' for now. The appropriate buying timing is predicted to be this week or next week.

 

 

 

 

The buying date is

Feb 05

 

 

A good price to buy a stock:

43.4

 

 

 

 

And the appropriate selling timing is predicted to be in 2 weeks.

 

The selling date is

Feb 05

to

Feb 12

A good price to sell a stock:

54.8

 

 

 

 

The price of CVNA stock moves in line with the rise and fall of

the stock market index with a probability of

77%

, and

Conversely, it moves against the stock market index trend

with a probability of

23%

 

 

Due to the high correlation level with the US stock market, there is a high probability of exhibiting movements in ascent and descent that closely resemble the trends in the US market.

 

 

 

 

because of the high similarity, the predicted flow might change depending on the flow of the stock market index. If any changes are made, the stock flow of the 10-week forecast may also change.

 

 

 

 

- Volatility of Prediction

Due to maintaining a proper flow of Buy-Sell intensity that is suitable for the current trend, pretiming predictions may have low volatility.

 

 

 

 

- Predicting the Turning Point of the Trend

The probability of a trend reversal occurring approximately 1 week from now, 4 weeks from now, 7 weeks from now

 

 

 

 

 

- Prediction of Upper~Lower price range over the next 10 weeks

Price:

42.7

~

73.8

% Change:

-1.6%

~

69.8%

Median price between the upper and lower prices

58.3

34.1%

 

 

 

 

- Analysis of the trend zone & level% and average intensity of trends

For the last 30 weeks, the average trend zone & level%

Bullish

31%

The Current trend zone & level%

Bearish

-6%

The expected average trend zone & level% for the next 10 weeks

Bullish

15%

If the trend moves upward from the current trend level%, it's expected to have an average upward strength of

74%

(Max 100%)

And if it moves downward, it is expected to have a downward strength of

-31%

(Min -100%)

 

 

 

 

- Average closing price in case of rising:

 

17.5%

=> HIGH ~ LOW range:

30.3%

~

-8.3%

- Average closing price in case of falling:

 

-10.0%

=> HIGH ~ LOW range:

8.8%

~

-15.3%

 

 

 

 

The 10-week prediction and technical analysis of CVNA stock are conducted based on the analysis of buy-sell intensity by the pretiming analysis. This analysis provides detailed information on various aspects, including the best stocks to buy, stock price targets, and investment strategies. It also includes bearish and bullish stock trend analysis as well as stock technical analysis.

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