CBOE Volatility Index (VIX). Trend Predictions, Timing, and Intensity Insights.



Apr 23, 2024

 

 

 

CBOE Volatility Index closing price

15.7

-7.38%

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Long-term strategy]

The current trend zone is Bearish. and Investment position suitable for the trend zone is Sell and Observe.

 

 

 

 

The trend within a Bearish zone is divided into a 'Downtrend' in the downward direction and a 'Rebound Trend' in the upward direction. In the Downtrend, there is a strong downward flow with occasional upward movements, while in the Rebound Trend, there is a fluctuating flow involving limited or temporary upward movements and downward fluctuations. Investing in this zone is associated with low expected returns and a higher risk of decline.

 

 

 

 

In a Bearish zone, there is potential for strong selling pressure to persist, resulting in a pronounced downward trend and a relatively weak upward rebound trend. When considering a medium to long-term investment strategy, if the trend moves in the Bearish zone, one can anticipate a downward flow of the bearish trend, allowing for the possibility of avoiding high downside risks or potentially gaining profits by investing in inverse stocks.

 

 

 

 

This is a method of waiting, observing the overall market conditions after selling in anticipation of a general price decline, and then making a buy decision again. And when the trend enters a Bullish zone, it becomes the Buying point.

 

 

 

 

As there are no anticipated changes in the trend zone that warrant considering a shift in investment strategy at this point, it is advisable to maintain the current investment position.

 

 

 

 

The 'Sell and Observe' position has been maintained for 1 day since the entry into the Bearish zone. During this period, the cumulative rate of

loss in the Bearish has been

-7.4%

as of the current date.

 

 

 

 

Selling price

Current price

Difference

16.9

15.7

-1.3

Apr 22, 2024

Apr 23, 2024

1 day

 

 

 

 

[Short-term strategy]

Indicating that We are currently in a bearish zone. Therefore, it is recommended to implement a strategy to reduce risk and take a suitable investing position.

 

 

 

 

In a bearish zone, where selling intensity is potentially strong, considering the possibility of a significant downturn at appropriate selling points is crucial. Hence, in the short term, an active and aggressive selling response is effective. During buying moments, it is advisable to adopt a wait-and-see approach or a conservative response with low exposure for purchases. Responding promptly to sell during upward movements can be utilized as an opportunity for risk hedging.

 

 

 

 

Currently, it's in the midst of a downtrend characterized by a strong downward price momentum, with temporary rises and strong falls. and It's maintaining a suitable Buy-Sell intensity for the current trend conditions.

 

 

 

 

A downtrend is characterized by an overall strong downward flow driven by strong selling pressure.

 

 

 

 

It is expected that the overall trend movement over the next 10 days will follow a sideways box pattern, with a ratio of 6 : 4 for the downward to upward direction, indicating a higher proportion of the downward trend. And, in terms of the expected intensity of the upward and downward movements, the downward intensity is higher, while the upward intensity is moderate.

 

 

 

 

A suitable investing position is 'Neutral' for now. The appropriate selling timing is predicted to be in 4 days.

 

 

 

 

The selling date is

Apr 26

to

Apr 29

A good price to sell a stock:

17.8

 

 

 

 

And the appropriate buying timing is predicted to be in 9 days.

The buying date is

May 03

to

May 06

A good price to buy a stock:

14.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- Volatility of Prediction

Due to maintaining a proper flow of Buy-Sell intensity that is suitable for the current trend, pretiming predictions may have low volatility.

 

 

 

 

- Predicting the Turning Point of the Trend

The probability of a trend reversal occurring approximately 3 days from now, 7 days from now

 

 

 

 

 

- Prediction of Upper~Lower price range over the next 10 days

Price:

14.2

~

17.3

% Change:

-9.7%

~

10.5%

Median price between the upper and lower

15.8

0.4%

 

 

 

 

- Analysis of the trend zone & level% and average intensity of trends

For the last 30 days, the average trend zone & level%

Bullish

4%

The Current trend zone & level%

Bearish

-7%

The expected average trend zone & level% for the next 10 days

Bearish

-93%

If the trend moves upward from the current trend level%, it's expected to have an average upward intensity of

27%

(Max 100%)

And if it moves downward, it is expected to have a downward intensity of

-73%

(Min -100%)

 

 

 

 

- Average closing price in case of rising:

 

2.7%

=> HIGH ~ LOW range:

6.5%

~

-1.2%

- Average closing price in case of falling:

 

-2.6%

=> HIGH ~ LOW range:

3.1%

~

-3.2%

 

 

 

 

The 10-day prediction and technical analysis of the CBOE Volatility Index index are conducted based on the analysis of buy-sell intensity by the pretiming analysis. This analysis provides detailed information on various aspects, including the best stocks to buy, stock price targets, and investment strategies. It also includes bearish and bullish stock trend analysis as well as stock technical analysis.

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